Mon, Mar 21, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 28 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 525 |
| DET | 011 | 112 | 314 | 04 | 0 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14PITPascal DupuisAssists: Chris Conner, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:17PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 10:51PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Jordan Staal, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–0
- P2 13:16PITTyler KennedyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 17:41DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brad Stuart · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 1:57DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brad Stuart, Tomas Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 8:06DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 10:27DETMike ModanoPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 2. PIT Alex Kovalev stopped
- 3. DET Mike Modano stopped
- 4. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 5. DET Daniel Cleary stopped
- 6. PIT James Neal scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:56DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:42PITJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24PITMatt Niskanen: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:31DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P3 7:00PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08PITAlex Kovalev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:12DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Kennedy – Staal10:59
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Jeffrey9:44
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Rupp5:44
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Talbot – Conner10:51
xG 0.11–0.66 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Lovejoy9:42
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Michalek – Lovejoy3:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek14:34
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Eaves – Helm6:47
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Filppula10:37
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Draper – Miller – Abdelkader2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm2:58
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kindl8:12
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Stuart – Kronwall13:20
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).