Tue, Mar 22, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 016 | 06 | 130 |
| PHX | 07 | 212 | 04 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Chris Stewart, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 8:41PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:00PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: David Schlemko, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:58PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:58STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:27STLRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:33STLChris Stewart: Holding2 min
- P1 16:49STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 2:33STLTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10PHXDavid Schlemko: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:05STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – Stewart12:04
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini4:19
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – McRae3:26
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Porter – Oshie9:30
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Shattenkirk10:35
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Strachan – Polak6:45
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo13:54
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Korpikoski6:41
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Doan – Belanger – Boedker8:44
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Boedker2:33
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger4:16
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle14:07
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Schlemko10:59
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Klesla18:32
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).