Wed, Mar 23, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 28 | 18 | 09 | 325 |
| SJS | 416 | 114 | 18 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Jamal Mayers, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 7:13CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:27SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Ben Eager, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 13:59CGYCory SarichAssists: Ales Kotalik, Robyn Regehr · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 14:59SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P1 17:33SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–4
- P2 13:20CGYRene BourqueAssists: Tom Kostopoulos · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 15:50SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.35 xG3–5
- P3 11:55SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:50SJSDany Heatley: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:59CGYAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:48CGYAnton Babchuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:58CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:58SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Bourque – Backlund3:38
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kotalik – Jackman – Backlund7:38
xG 0.12–0.38 (25%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay16:28
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Regehr2:18
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester17:27
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell12:17
xG 1.24–0.07 (95%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture13:19
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi13:12
xG 0.39–0.40 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins4:27
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Demers16:36
xG 1.78–0.23 (89%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun18:32
xG 1.34–0.40 (77%)attempts 23–14goals 3–1
- Boyle – Murray18:45
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).