Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Atlanta Thrashers 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 112 | 116 | 06 | 234 |
| NYI | 03 | 14 | 08 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 1:38NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–1
- P2 13:56ATLRob SchrempPPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:00ATLAnthony Stewart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:32NYIMatt Moulson: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:35NYIRadek Martinek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53ATLMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:53NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:48ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P3 2:41NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:11ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:27ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ATLDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schremp won the faceoff against Konopka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:30
xG 0.98–0.09 (92%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Maxwell8:04
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Schremp – Kane3:24
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Thorburn – Burmistrov3:36
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien14:18
xG 1.25–0.11 (92%)attempts 26–7goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian13:26
xG 0.74–0.39 (66%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:48
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Haley – Martin6:33
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:32
xG 0.91–0.93 (50%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey6:13
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:53
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jurcina – Hillen16:33
xG 0.69–1.00 (41%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:23
xG 0.79–1.13 (41%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
- Martinek – Gervais13:34
xG 0.33–1.21 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).