Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Rangers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 19 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 230 |
| NYR | 05 | 09 | 110 | 06 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:21OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Bobby Butler, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 2:45NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Marc Staal, Ruslan Fedotenko · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
- 2. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 3. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 4. OTT Ryan Shannon stopped
- 5. NYR Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 6. OTT Marek Svatos stopped
- 7. NYR Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 8. OTT Nick Foligno stopped
- 9. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 10. OTT Erik Karlsson scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:32OTTMarek Svatos: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:36NYRMichael Sauer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:36OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:45OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:45NYRMichael Sauer: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:58NYRWojtek Wolski: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:47NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 18:20NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra9:31
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler15:11
xG 0.52–0.75 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith8:39
xG 0.10–0.59 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson11:53
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee4:10
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Dubinsky – Callahan6:04
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Stepan4:54
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust7:22
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wolski – Prust – Anisimov2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh14:09
xG 0.90–0.56 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- McCabe – Eminger13:10
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi20:54
xG 0.65–0.88 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).