Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 0, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 05 | 02 | 012 |
| STL | 09 | 17 | 314 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:28STLT.J. OshieGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 2:12STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: T.J. Hensick · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 8:30STLChris StewartPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 15:07STLAdam CracknellAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:08STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:08EDMJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:09STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:09EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:37EDMLiam Reddox: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:43STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:43EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:43EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Interference2 min
- P2 7:22STLAdam Cracknell: Holding2 min
- P2 9:21EDMLinus Omark: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:45STLAndy McDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 0:48EDMLiam Reddox: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:27STLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:57EDMJim Vandermeer: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:44EDMSteve MacIntyre: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:03STLAlex Pietrangelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:09STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Hartikainen9:10
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- MacIntyre – O'Marra – VandeVelde4:07
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Cogliano – Eberle9:09
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Reddox – Omark – Paajarvi12:21
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Peckham10:56
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Petry3:41
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid15:47
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Stewart – McRae7:32
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Janssen – Reaves – McRae2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini8:32
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Hensick – Stewart3:34
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo12:04
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk10:40
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Shattenkirk2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).