Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 4, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 115 | 05 | 318 | 438 |
| NSH | 312 | 110 | 16 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 11:18NSHNick SpalingAssists: Jonathon Blum, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P1 11:37NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P1 16:01ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 18:20NSHJordin TootooAssists: Shane O'Brien, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 9:29NSHDavid LegwandSHGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 9:39ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 15:14ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–5
- P3 19:33ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:26ANAJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:20NSHCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:23ANAAndreas Lilja: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:11ANABrandon McMillan: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:42NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
- P3 7:57NSHShane O'Brien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:29NSHJoel Ward: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:21NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:00NSHShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:43
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Ryan – McMillan – Sexton2:16
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake8:53
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Winchester – McMillan – Sexton3:33
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler3:33
xG 0.60–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky11:55
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler6:27
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward10:48
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson3:29
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:45
xG 0.63–0.72 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:40
xG 0.39–0.51 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson10:10
xG 0.83–0.12 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Suter – Weber16:16
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum11:33
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).