Thu, Mar 24, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 29 | 110 | 18 | 427 |
| COL | 13 | 113 | 112 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55COLDaniel WinnikSHAssists: Jay McClement, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:32TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 19:54TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:37TORTyler BozakAssists: Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 12:36COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Ryan Stoa, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 3:02TORPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 11:54COLMatt DucheneAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:42COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:53TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:53COLCameron Gaunce: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:45TORFredrik Sjostrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:51TORTim Brent: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15COLBrandon Yip: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:40COLJohn-Michael Liles: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:12
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown9:51
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak11:19
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Crabb – Boyce – Kadri9:11
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn15:58
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Lashoff9:06
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lashoff – Schenn2:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – McLeod – O'Reilly2:45
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Stoa14:26
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Jones – Porter – O'Reilly2:58
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Yip – McLeod4:09
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Holos9:40
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gaunce3:52
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Liles – Holos2:40
xG 0.14–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).