Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 111 | 313 | 01 | 1 | 531 |
| EDM | 110 | 27 | 14 | 00 | 0 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Linus Omark · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 8:22CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Tom Kostopoulos · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:21EDMTeemu HartikainenAssists: Jordan Eberle, Theo Peckham · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:34EDMColin FraserSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 3:31EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan O'Marra, Liam Reddox · Backhand, 0.51 xG1–4
- P3 5:55CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 12:09CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:05CGYSteve StaiosAssists: Rene Bourque, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 3. EDM Ryan Jones stopped
- 4. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
- 5. EDM Teemu Hartikainen stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:01EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:22EDMSteve MacIntyre: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:06EDMJeff Petry: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 5:15EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 4:17CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- OT 4:58CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against O'Marra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Glencross – Bourque11:07
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Tanguay – Bourque5:56
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Kotalik – Jackman4:53
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Nemisz – Bouma4:11
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staios – Regehr2:19
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Sarich – Regehr2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano5:26
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Reddox – O'Marra10:35
xG 0.63–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Paajarvi12:08
xG 0.70–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- VandeVelde – Eberle – Hartikainen12:48
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Paajarvi2:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid17:38
xG 0.77–0.11 (88%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Strudwick – Peckham13:00
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Vandermeer – Petry19:33
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).