Mon, Mar 28, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 110 | 112 | 435 |
| ANA | 017 | 318 | 27 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan Stoa · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:17COLMatt DucheneAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 0:47ANATeemu SelanneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 4:06ANAJason BlakeAssists: Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:01ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Cam Fowler, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 15:30COLDavid JonesAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 2:49ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 15:11ANATeemu SelannePPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 19:18COLPaul StastnyAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:03ANABrad Winchester: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:09COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:09ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:01COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00COLDavid Koci: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:00ANAJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:00ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:47COLJohn-Michael Liles: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 5:05COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:35COLCameron Gaunce: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:51ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:00COLMilan Hejduk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Winnik – O'Reilly10:28
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- McClement – McLeod – Olver2:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – Stoa4:49
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene14:31
xG 0.54–1.04 (34%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Holos10:05
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick16:16
xG 0.46–0.70 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Liles – Johnson18:54
xG 0.52–0.97 (35%)attempts 11–19goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake11:43
xG 0.60–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:12
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – Parros3:15
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – Beleskey – McMillan8:39
xG 0.19–0.74 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky16:56
xG 1.21–0.59 (67%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Fowler12:59
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler3:45
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).