Wed, Mar 30, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 010 | 214 | 229 |
| NJD | 17 | 110 | 13 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Nick Palmieri, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:23NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Nick Palmieri, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P3 9:38NYIFrans NielsenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 13:44NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Matt Martin, Kyle Okposo · Deflected, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 15:04NJDAndy GreeneGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:57NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:33NJDJay Leach: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:33NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:01NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:08NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:10NYIRadek Martinek: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:18NYIDylan Reese: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:54NJDBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:57NYIMark Katic: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Martin7:02
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:08
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey7:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Haley2:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWishart – Hamonic12:27
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Martinek – Hillen13:51
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Reese – Katic9:38
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Josefson8:17
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Mair – Steckel – Pelley7:18
xG 0.04–0.38 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri11:08
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus9:53
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne8:07
xG 0.64–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Tallinder – Salmela2:25
xG 0.01–0.17 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fraser – Greene4:32
xG 0.06–0.32 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).