Wed, Mar 30, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 10, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 319 | 514 | 214 | 1047 |
| DET | 211 | 115 | 018 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51DETMike ModanoAssists: Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:06STLChris StewartAssists: Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 16:04STLCam JanssenAssists: Ryan Reaves, Philip McRae · Deflected, 0.39 xG2–1
- P1 17:55DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 18:24STLChris PorterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 1:54STLMatt D'AgostiniPPGWGAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Vladimir Sobotka · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 5:23STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Andy McDonald, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 10:04STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Matt D'Agostini · Snap, 0.15 xG6–2
- P2 12:37DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–3
- P2 14:47STLRoman PolakAssists: Chris Porter, B.J. Crombeen · Snap, 0.13 xG7–3
- P2 16:10STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Chris Stewart, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.41 xG8–3
- P3 6:21STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.15 xG9–3
- P3 17:50STLChris PorterAssists: Cam Janssen, Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.20 xG10–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:18DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:01DETJiri Hudler: Interference2 min
- P2 0:14DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07STLAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:24DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34STLIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:40STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 10:53DETJohan Franzen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:53STLKevin Shattenkirk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Stewart – Berglund10:40
xG 1.13–0.52 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini8:59
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Porter – Cracknell9:32
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Porter – Cracknell – Reaves2:27
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Polak13:46
xG 1.31–0.91 (59%)attempts 18–19goals 4–1
- Cole – Shattenkirk14:01
xG 1.03–0.63 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- Polak – Cole3:12
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Helm9:45
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Abdelkader8:11
xG 0.56–0.62 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Holmstrom – Filppula – Franzen2:02
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen7:55
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson5:45
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall9:38
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Rafalski – Kindl8:19
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).