Thu, Mar 31, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 17 | 18 | 06 | 1 | 431 |
| BOS | 09 | 318 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06TORLuke SchennAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 2:09BOSBrad MarchandSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:08BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 7:06TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 8:31BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 7:53TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 2. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 3. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri scored
- 5. BOS Rich Peverley stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:47BOSTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03BOSSteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:00BOSAndrew Ference: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:00TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:05TORNikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
- P2 6:38BOSGregory Campbell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:00TORJay Rosehill: Interference2 min
- P2 11:06TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:06BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:59TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:28BOSAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:55TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak10:03
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Crabb – Boyce – Kadri6:59
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Brent – Brown – Kadri2:30
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:38
xG 0.22–0.43 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson2:57
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lashoff5:21
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Lashoff – Schenn3:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Campbell – Paille7:16
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:44
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Seguin6:15
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:12
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Kampfer2:10
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid13:07
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ference – Kampfer9:12
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).