Thu, Mar 31, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 39 | 06 | 423 |
| FLA | 011 | 115 | 012 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28OTTNick FolignoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:30OTTColin GreeningGWGAssists: Marek Svatos · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 6:02FLAMichal RepikAssists: Marty Reasoner · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 6:36OTTColin GreeningAssists: Marek Svatos, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 14:24OTTFilip KubaAssists: Erik Condra, Ryan Shannon · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41OTTFrancis Lessard: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:40OTTJesse Winchester: Holding2 min
- P1 7:40FLARyan Carter: Holding2 min
- P1 14:10OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 10:41FLAJoe Callahan: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Svatos – Greening6:04
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler4:33
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Winchester3:11
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith9:43
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Hale3:26
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hale – Wiercioch6:08
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Phillips – Wiercioch3:06
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Rissmiller – Repik10:07
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Carter10:13
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors10:10
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Bergfors – Dadonov2:20
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Wilson13:09
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Garrison – Kulikov6:41
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov7:06
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).