Sat, Apr 2, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 010 | 36 | 426 |
| NYI | 112 | 111 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47CARJussi JokinenAssists: Joe Corvo, Derek Joslin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:47NYIJesse JoensuuAssists: Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:05NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Dylan Reese · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 3:02CARJoe CorvoAssists: Tim Gleason, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:04CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:12CAREric StaalENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:57NYITrevor Gillies: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:57CARJiri Tlusty: Illegal substitution2 min
- P1 15:27CARJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:33NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:32NYIZenon Konopka: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:47CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:24CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:57NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:28CARJamie McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Sutter – Bowman9:13
xG 0.87–0.16 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Stillman – Cole – Staal10:54
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson4:14
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:23
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – Joslin3:56
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason7:45
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – McBain5:51
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Joensuu – Martin8:46
xG 0.88–0.14 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:26
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Okposo – Grabner – Bailey4:35
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Haley4:12
xG 0.12–0.54 (19%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hamonic15:35
xG 1.37–0.48 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Reese – Katic15:06
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Wishart – Hillen8:27
xG 0.42–0.77 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).