Sun, Apr 3, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 110 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 334 |
| PHI | 111 | 014 | 17 | 02 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 19:59NYRBryan McCabePPAssists: Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:30NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 4:32PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Carle · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Nikolay Zherdev stopped
- 2. NYR Erik Christensen scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NYR Wojtek Wolski scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:45NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:45PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:51NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:20PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:18NYRVinny Prospal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:54PHIBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:54NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:03NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45NYRMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:22PHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:22NYRBryan McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:16PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Prospal – Gaborik – Stepan8:49
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov12:27
xG 0.53–0.81 (40%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Avery – Christensen – Wolski3:58
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust7:32
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi19:58
xG 1.34–1.23 (52%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
- Sauer – McDonagh14:31
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- McCabe – Eminger5:03
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Carter – Leino6:34
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk9:34
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Carter – Richards4:16
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Betts – Nodl – Powe2:59
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Syvret11:57
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros4:17
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros7:56
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).