Sun, Apr 3, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 29 | 212 | 633 |
| CBJ | 113 | 07 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Chris Stewart, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 17:08STLChris PorterGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:08CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 2:20STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:39STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Chris Stewart, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 15:42STLAlexander SteenAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.31 xG5–1
- P3 19:15STLCarlo ColaiacovoUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 17:19STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:33CBJSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18STLPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P2 15:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:43STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:56CBJR.J. Umberger: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31STLVladimir Sobotka: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:31CBJKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:37STLAlexander Steen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:37CBJDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:43STLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund11:17
xG 1.08–0.16 (87%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Steen – Porter – Sobotka8:15
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie9:39
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Reaves2:27
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo14:54
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:33
xG 0.90–0.36 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Polak17:35
xG 0.26–0.46 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – MacKenzie – Voracek7:12
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Kubalik4:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert2:39
xG 0.01–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Upshall – Brassard8:13
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Methot – Stralman11:08
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Lepisto10:55
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot4:06
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).