Mon, Apr 4, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 1, San Jose Sharks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 112 | 08 | 132 |
| SJS | 210 | 416 | 09 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:26SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicGWGAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 1:57LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Matt Greene, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 2:19SJSKyle WellwoodAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Andrew Desjardins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 5:33SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Thornton, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 9:20SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–5
- P2 19:33SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:37LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:37SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:46SJSJamal Mayers: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:12SJSDan Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:12LAKBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:12SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:12LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:12SJSDan Boyle: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:12SJSDan Boyle: Instigator face shield2 min
- P3 17:12SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Handzus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Brown – Penner15:06
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Brown – Richardson – Clifford2:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Lewis – Westgarth8:52
xG 0.37–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Smyth – Stoll – Moller11:15
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty17:31
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Johnson – Martinez3:36
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Johnson15:06
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell12:43
xG 1.16–0.42 (74%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins9:08
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Mayers – Heatley – Couture3:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi13:36
xG 0.65–0.74 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers17:32
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 23–12goals 3–0
- Boyle – Murray16:43
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Wallin – White16:44
xG 0.59–1.36 (30%)attempts 8–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).