Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 112 | 012 | 229 |
| OTT | 112 | 213 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:37OTTNick FolignoPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 15:56PHIMike RichardsAssists: Nikolay Zherdev, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:42OTTRyan ShannonPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:46OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Zack Smith, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 8:02OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Ryan Shannon, Bobby Butler · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:42OTTMilan MichalekENAssists: Jesse Winchester, David Hale · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:12OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:59PHIBen Holmstrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:59OTTChris Neil: Instigator2 min
- P1 4:59OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:59OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P1 12:13OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59PHIAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:47PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:32OTTFrancis Lessard: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32OTTAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:24OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:02PHIDanny Syvret: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:14PHIAndrej Meszaros: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:12PHIDaniel Carcillo: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – van Riemsdyk – Leino2:23
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk8:11
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Giroux8:08
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Leino – Holmstrom5:33
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Syvret10:27
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:05
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Syvret2:09
xG 0.05–0.01 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Condra – Winchester7:04
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler7:13
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Wick – Foligno – Smith3:06
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith6:35
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Benoit12:56
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hale – Wiercioch9:57
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Benoit – Wiercioch2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).