Tue, Apr 5, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 05 | 08 | 023 |
| DAL | 15 | 011 | 214 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00DALSteve OttPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 19:07DALLoui ErikssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG0–2
- P3 19:40DALBrenden MorrowENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:25CBJSami Lepisto: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18CBJDerick Brassard: Delaying game2 min
- P1 16:24DALJason Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41DALKari Lehtonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:10CBJSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:48DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:48CBJCraig Rivet: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:20CBJKristian Huselius: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:17CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Calvert5:45
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Brassard – Voracek12:48
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett8:23
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Kubalik9:04
xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Clitsome3:18
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Lepisto4:40
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Rivet – Clitsome5:02
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott10:14
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Barch – Williams – Segal3:49
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Petersen – Wandell10:21
xG 0.28–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Benn10:58
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Skrastins14:37
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley13:22
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).