Wed, Apr 6, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 03 | 08 | 112 | 123 |
| CGY | 020 | 314 | 313 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:44CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 13:18CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Anton Babchuk · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:24CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 0:59CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 3:47EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 6:24CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Greg Nemisz, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–5
- P3 6:47CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Tim Jackman, Alex Tanguay · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:16EDMLinus Omark: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:19EDMLiam Reddox: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 3:06EDMLinus Omark: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33EDMAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:24EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:24CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:01CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:01EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25CGYRobyn Regehr: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:08CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00VandeVelde won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Omark – Hartikainen8:00
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Reddox – O'Marra – Eberle5:49
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Jones – VandeVelde – Paajarvi8:20
xG 0.02–0.62 (3%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Petry3:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Chorney3:07
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham11:03
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Backlund12:43
xG 0.82–0.10 (89%)attempts 21–3goals 2–0
- Stajan – Nemisz – Bouma5:35
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Jackman – Bourque9:25
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Langkow – Kostopoulos – Glencross9:22
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Carson10:26
xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester14:33
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Sarich – Babchuk10:51
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).