Thu, Apr 7, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Atlanta Thrashers 3, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 08 | 212 | 16 | 326 |
| NYR | 010 | 09 | 010 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:42ATLRob SchrempGWGAssists: Andrey Zubarev, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:57ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 4:19ATLEric BoultonAssists: Johnny Oduya, Rob Schremp · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:42ATLEric Boulton: Interference2 min
- P2 8:48ATLAndrey Zubarev: Holding2 min
- P2 9:03NYRVinny Prospal: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:32NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:32ATLDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane2:53
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:11
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Boulton – Stewart – Schremp5:28
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Kane8:41
xG 0.27–0.68 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Byfuglien12:51
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian15:10
xG 0.64–0.86 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Stuart – Zubarev14:16
xG 0.54–1.43 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov6:26
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:43
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Wolski – Stepan2:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Prospal – Wolski – Dubinsky2:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh13:34
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi16:25
xG 1.25–0.94 (57%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
- McCabe – Gilroy3:12
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).