Thu, Apr 7, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 15 | 112 | 00 | 229 |
| OTT | 08 | 012 | 29 | 13 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:12MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Mathieu Darche, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 0:36OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Colin Greening, Bobby Butler · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 17:11OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Jason Spezza, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:49MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:16OTTFilip KubaGWGAssists: Bobby Butler, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:16OTTColin Greening: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:22MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:11OTTAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:51MTLYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:32OTTFrancis Lessard: Checking from behind5 min
- P3 2:32OTTFrancis Lessard: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:01
xG 1.34–1.19 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 0–2
- Gomez – Gionta – Darche12:42
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White3:19
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – White – Eller4:26
xG 0.00–0.30 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski12:33
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Mara – Spacek10:32
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban13:33
xG 1.03–1.17 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler6:55
xG 0.89–0.47 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Neil – Foligno – Da Costa8:52
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Shannon – Condra6:22
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Lessard – Smith – Winchester3:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Smith5:19
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hale – Smith7:27
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Phillips2:10
xG 0.18–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).