Fri, Apr 8, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 09 | 17 | 225 |
| TBL | 213 | 214 | 07 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:59FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Mike Santorelli, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:08TBLRyan MaloneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:27TBLVincent LecavalierGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.36 xG1–3
- P2 15:06TBLPavel KubinaPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 5:11FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Joe Callahan, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:01FLAMichal Repik: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:52TBLMattias Ohlund: Interference2 min
- P1 16:32TBLDominic Moore: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:27FLAKeaton Ellerby: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:48TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37FLAClay Wilson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47FLAJoe Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:32FLABill Thomas: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:22TBLSimon Gagne: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:10TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Skille – Dadonov8:01
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Rissmiller – Kennedy – Thomas3:44
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bergfors – Matthias – Repik7:54
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Samsonov – Booth9:46
xG 0.15–0.42 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Wilson10:59
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison6:25
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Weaver – Ellerby7:32
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Malone – Stamkos9:59
xG 0.51–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Purcell9:15
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Moore – Bergenheim – Downie6:51
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell6:40
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Bergeron12:49
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brewer – Lundin12:10
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Kubina – Lundin2:46
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).