Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 19 | 18 | 328 |
| COL | 02 | 19 | 16 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51DALMike RibeiroAssists: Karlis Skrastins · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:56DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 13:08COLBrandon YipSHAssists: Philippe Dupuis, Jonas Holos · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 0:40DALBrenden MorrowGWGAssists: Steve Ott, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 5:00COLBrandon YipAssists: Jay McClement, Jonas Holos · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:07COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:52DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P1 19:15COLMark Olver: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:40COLDavid Koci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Petersen – Wandell11:28
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Benn13:34
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ott11:25
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Williams – Segal – Burish3:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley14:47
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Fistric – Goligoski14:46
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Robidas – Skrastins16:49
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Yip – McLeod2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Winnik – Duchene3:40
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Olver – Duchene5:17
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Yip – McLeod2:36
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacias – Wilson2:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson2:44
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Belle – O'Byrne13:02
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).