Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 18 | 211 | 327 |
| PHX | 110 | 214 | 12 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58PHXAndrew EbbettAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:31SJSIan WhiteAssists: Niclas Wallin, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:57PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Shane Doan, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 11:31PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 8:22PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 9:27SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Logan Couture, Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 16:21SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:42SJSTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P1 3:41SJSAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35SJSScott Nichol: Interference2 min
- P2 2:51PHXKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 9:10SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P2 15:12PHXLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
- P3 8:02SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12PHXKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P3 15:31PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:31SJSTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell9:10
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Couture2:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Couture4:53
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Mayers – Eager – Couture2:45
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers11:32
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray13:06
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Wallin – White10:56
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Belanger10:32
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Ebbett – Turris5:06
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal9:30
xG 0.03–0.26 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak12:00
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Rozsival12:25
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Morris – Yandle11:17
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Klesla12:49
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).