Thu, Oct 6, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 213 | 012 | 04 | 229 |
| BOS | 16 | 06 | 011 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Joe Corvo · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:10PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 19:57PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43BOSNathan Horton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:26PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:11BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P2 15:29PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P3 7:24PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:39BOSJohnny Boychuk: Holding2 min
- P3 19:40BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:57PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk9:58
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Read – Couturier6:48
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Rinaldo5:40
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Simmonds10:33
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:00
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:12
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lilja – Meszaros7:24
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Caron – Seguin9:34
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:40
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Peverley – Marchand8:55
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:42
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg9:36
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ference – Bartkowski6:29
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:53
xG 0.01–0.04 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).