Fri, Oct 7, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 212 | 19 | 331 |
| CBJ | 013 | 19 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:10NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, David Legwand · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 14:19CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Jeff Carter, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 15:56NSHCraig SmithAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 0:39NSHMatt HalischukGWGAssists: Cal O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 10:19CBJRick NashAssists: Vinny Prospal, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:42NSHMatt Halischuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:21NSHJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34CBJVinny Prospal: Interference2 min
- P2 2:35CBJKris Russell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:35CBJDerek Dorsett: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52NSHTeemu Laakso: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:21NSHJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:33NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – O'Reilly – Halischuk8:42
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Legwand – Wilson – Smith9:55
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Smithson – Hornqvist – Geoffrion5:58
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Erat – Kostitsyn – Spaling9:05
xG 0.17–0.61 (22%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Suter – Weber15:09
xG 0.79–0.94 (45%)attempts 19–20goals 2–1
- Laakso – Hillen10:15
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Klein – Blum15:46
xG 0.39–0.77 (34%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Carter12:28
xG 1.29–0.29 (81%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Calvert5:55
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Atkinson10:44
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Brassard – Johansen5:41
xG 0.05–0.26 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Clitsome11:34
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Savard10:32
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Martinek – Tyutin14:09
xG 0.92–0.82 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).