Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 112 | 112 | 231 |
| MIN | 29 | 214 | 03 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10MINMatt CullenAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Guillaume Latendresse · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:20MINMarco ScandellaPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Niklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 10:40MINDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Marek Zidlicky · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 17:53CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Aaron Johnson, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 18:51MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Dany Heatley, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 16:38CBJMaksim MayorovAssists: Grant Clitsome, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:24MINNick Schultz: Holding2 min
- P1 11:03MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:46CBJMaksim Mayorov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:03CBJJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:36MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P2 10:30CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:54MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:02MINCal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:52CBJDavid Savard: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Vermette – Umberger3:51
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Atkinson5:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter6:47
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Carter – Atkinson3:43
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Savard5:58
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Clitsome5:54
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Martinek – Johnson5:58
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi11:46
xG 1.14–0.78 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Bulmer7:23
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Latendresse7:34
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Powe – Gillies5:49
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon10:46
xG 1.12–0.14 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Scandella12:38
xG 0.61–0.83 (43%)attempts 12–21goals 1–2
- Zanon – Zidlicky13:43
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).