Sat, Oct 8, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 02 | 17 | 112 | 221 |
| CHI | 110 | 215 | 26 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06CHIAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 7:39CHIDave BollandAssists: Marcus Kruger, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 11:22CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 12:35DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Adam Burish, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 5:10CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Steve Montador · Slap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 10:07DALSteve OttPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 18:14CHIDave BollandENAssists: Michael Frolik, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:11CHINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:15DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:50DALMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:26CHIJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:25CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:55DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:14CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:53DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:25CHIPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:22CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:22CHIPatrick Sharp: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:00DALVernon Fiddler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:49DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Ott – Fiddler3:29
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn5:27
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Benn – Vincour5:47
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish5:25
xG 0.12–0.22 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski13:33
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 1–2
- Souray – Daley12:10
xG 0.29–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Fistric – Larsen10:13
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Bickell – Frolik6:25
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Sharp – Toews8:05
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Hossa – Kane – Saad8:20
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson9:29
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Montador11:23
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Keith – Leddy12:47
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).