Mon, Oct 10, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 18 | 02 | 217 |
| STL | 112 | 213 | 210 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:51STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jason Arnott, Matt D'Agostini · Snap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 3:39STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 15:30STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 16:55CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 3:44STLChris StewartAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 14:22STLJason ArnottAssists: Andy McDonald · Slap, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:24CGYJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:20CGYJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:37STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:37CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:44STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:36STLNikita Nikitin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:33STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P3 3:23CGYDavid Moss: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jackman – Bourque – Horak7:09
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Stajan5:00
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Glencross9:19
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
- Iginla – Tanguay – Moss10:31
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Giordano14:15
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Sarich – Smith13:41
xG 0.57–0.84 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler16:43
xG 0.23–0.87 (21%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – McDonald – Backes9:31
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Arnott – Steen – D'Agostini9:35
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves4:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund9:50
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Pietrangelo17:29
xG 1.02–0.12 (90%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Polak13:56
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:22
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).