Mon, Oct 10, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 12 | 011 | 212 | 325 |
| CBJ | 111 | 19 | 05 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:30VANChris HigginsAssists: Manny Malhotra, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 18:34CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Rick Nash, Grant Clitsome · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:59VANCody HodgsonAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 8:29VANAlexandre BurrowsPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:32VANManny Malhotra: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:10VANMarco Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:32CBJVinny Prospal: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:27CBJMarc Methot: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:37VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:37CBJKris Russell: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:37VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:51VANChris Tanev: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 8:13CBJGrant Clitsome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:49VANChris Higgins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:58CBJJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Samuelsson – Hodgson8:26
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:47
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Higgins – Hansen6:45
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti6:57
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa13:02
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Salo – Edler12:50
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:17
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Calvert – Atkinson4:56
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Prospal – Nash – Carter10:09
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov10:38
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Brassard10:49
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Methot13:36
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Savard11:49
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Russell11:15
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).