Thu, Oct 13, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 7, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 218 | 112 | 49 | 739 |
| OTT | 14 | 04 | 08 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 7:04COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 8:25COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:20COLJoakim LindstromAssists: Ryan Wilson, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 1:48COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 4:19COLDaniel WinnikSHAssists: Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 13:37COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.22 xG6–1
- P3 17:27COLJoakim LindstromPPAssists: Ryan Wilson, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:07COLDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:07OTTBrian Lee: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:54OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:54COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:54OTTZack Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 10:59COLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:58OTTStephane Da Costa: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:37COLChuck Kobasew: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:41COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:39OTTChris Neil: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Da Costa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:29
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Jones – Stastny5:15
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McClement – McLeod – Galiardi8:15
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Lindstrom – Duchene6:51
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – O'Brien8:38
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hejda – O'Brien2:23
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson10:02
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Butler2:50
xG 0.28–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Zibanejad2:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Butler2:23
xG 0.01–0.09 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Regin – Foligno8:41
xG 0.14–0.42 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Lee3:24
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen4:38
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen7:35
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).