Sat, Oct 15, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 6, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 314 | 17 | 00 | 2 | 630 |
| MTL | 120 | 26 | 215 | 02 | 0 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51COLChuck KobasewAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:31MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:35MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Brian Gionta, P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:37COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:31COLPaul StastnyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 15:51MTLTravis MoenAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 18:42COLDavid JonesAssists: Ryan Wilson, Kyle Quincey · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 12:57MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Josh Gorges, Erik Cole · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 13:17MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 15:57COLKyle QuinceyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 3. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 4. COL Matt Duchene scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:36COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57COLDaniel Winnik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:45MTLYannick Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:38MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:18MTLErik Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:23COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:16MTLP.K. Subban: Kneeing2 min
- P3 15:46MTLRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kobasew – Jones – Stastny10:52
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- McClement – Porter – McLeod4:10
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Lindstrom – Duchene9:17
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:56
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hejda – O'Brien2:51
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Quincey – Wilson3:46
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:06
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:16
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Darche – Palushaj – Engqvist4:07
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen10:14
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Cole – Plekanec – Eller10:25
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban14:14
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Gorges – Diaz15:31
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Emelin – Weber12:11
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).