Sat, Oct 15, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 14 | 16 | 05 | 215 |
| DAL | 111 | 111 | 211 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, David Savard · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:25DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:13CBJAlexandre GirouxAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:21DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Steve Ott, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 1:36DALSheldon SourayGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 13:52DALMichael RyderPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:06DALNicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:00CBJVinny Prospal: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:25DALSheldon Souray: Interference2 min
- P2 1:35DALSteve Ott: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:19DALSheldon Souray: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:03DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:00CBJRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:00CBJVinny Prospal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:00DALNicklas Grossmann: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:17CBJAlexandre Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:57CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- MacKenzie – Brassard – Calvert6:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov8:53
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Vermette – Umberger10:22
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 3–15goals 1–2
- Prospal – Nash – Carter12:37
xG 0.17–0.66 (20%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Savard12:20
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell12:00
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Martinek – Methot14:13
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 6–16goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Eriksson – Benn12:31
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder8:51
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell6:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish8:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Pardy13:31
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann12:29
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Souray – Robidas12:47
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).