Sat, Oct 15, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 14 | 08 | 38 | 420 |
| SJS | 110 | 113 | 013 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37STLMatt D'AgostiniUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:44SJSMichal HandzusPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:18SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Ryane Clowe, Torrey Mitchell · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:33STLKent HuskinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 9:18STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:33STLDavid BackesENAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:56STLBarret Jackman: Elbowing2 min
- P1 1:56SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:32SJSAndrew Murray: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:16SJSBrad Winchester: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:04STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:01SJSMichal Handzus: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:51STLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Arnott – Steen – D'Agostini7:56
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Nichol – Porter – Grachev3:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Backes – Oshie10:11
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Stewart – Berglund10:01
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak2:53
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:05
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk10:54
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Mitchell – Couture9:34
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski15:50
xG 1.03–0.42 (71%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Handzus – Murray – McGinn7:23
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Winchester – Clowe – Desjardins2:50
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic10:51
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Boyle – Murray13:28
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Burns2:20
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).