Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 17 | 27 | 318 |
| CBJ | 012 | 012 | 216 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:17DALSteve OttAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 1:31DALJamie BennAssists: Radek Dvorak, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 5:06CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Rick Nash, David Savard · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 6:27DALMichael RyderGWGAssists: Sheldon Souray, Brenden Morrow · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:05CBJKris RussellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:41DALSteve Ott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:07CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:07DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:46CBJRyan Johansen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:17DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:34DALBrenden Morrow: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:10CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:34DALSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53DALSheldon Souray: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Nystrom – Dowell – Wandell5:23
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn13:22
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Burish7:33
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Ryder12:19
xG 0.19–0.74 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Souray – Robidas14:30
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Pardy16:42
xG 0.41–0.87 (32%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
- Daley – Grossmann13:54
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Nash – Brassard12:02
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Prospal – Giroux – Vermette11:30
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov9:09
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Bass – Johansen5:29
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell10:28
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Clitsome – Russell2:34
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Martinek – Tyutin3:35
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).