Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 212 | 18 | 323 |
| MTL | 014 | 116 | 011 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:08MTLRaphael DiazAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 12:11BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Snap, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 19:57BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:31BUFChristian EhrhoffENAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:01MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
- P1 12:03BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:07BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:04BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:20MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:20BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:30BUFThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:07BUFThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Ennis6:17
xG 0.60–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Kaleta3:55
xG 0.21–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Adam10:29
xG 0.22–0.27 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe6:41
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Gragnani12:24
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff14:49
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 15–29goals 1–1
- Regehr – Myers12:28
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKostitsyn – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:35
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Cole – Plekanec – Eller9:40
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen7:33
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Darche – Palushaj – Engqvist3:48
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz11:32
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Emelin – Weber13:27
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban14:35
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).