Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 410 | 07 | 313 | 730 |
| OTT | 03 | 112 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:00PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Matt Read, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 16:17PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Chris Pronger, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 19:00PHIMax TalbotAssists: Matt Read, Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 18:59OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 15:25PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 16:01PHISean CouturierAssists: Matt Carle, Matt Read · Snap, 0.28 xG6–1
- P3 19:15PHIHarry ZolnierczykAssists: Max Talbot, Zac Rinaldo · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–1
- P3 19:40OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Zenon Konopka, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:47OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:01OTTColin Greening: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 19:38OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:38PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:37PHIMatt Walker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:37PHIMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:37OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:05PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P2 14:48OTTBrian Lee: Holding2 min
- P3 6:10PHIMatt Walker: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:58OTTStephane Da Costa: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:25OTTDavid Rundblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:52PHIMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Regin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Read – Couturier9:11
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Jagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk9:57
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Brière – Voracek – Simmonds9:11
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk5:08
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle10:02
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:54
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Meszaros9:06
xG 0.03–0.21 (11%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Foligno – Smith4:17
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Regin – Foligno – Condra7:13
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Zibanejad9:25
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Smith – Da Costa2:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:18
xG 0.86–0.73 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 2–3
- Lee – Cowen9:52
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee3:48
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).