Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 06 | 012 | 125 |
| CGY | 013 | 04 | 211 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Corey Potter, Shawn Horcoff · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 14:03CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Olli Jokinen, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 15:32CGYAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Cory Sarich, David Moss · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:06CGYPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:06EDMBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:15CGYTim Jackman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31EDMCam Barker: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:42EDMLinus Omark: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:00EDMEric Belanger: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:08CGYAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:56CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:29CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51CGYMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Petrell – Paajarvi6:39
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander2:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones13:01
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Omark – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:16
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sutton – Barker11:33
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Barker2:26
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter13:42
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Moss10:09
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Stempniak – Glencross9:11
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan2:19
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Morrison – Hagman – Bourque9:40
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler13:56
xG 1.20–0.13 (90%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Sarich – Smith13:34
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hannan – Giordano15:40
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).