Tue, Oct 18, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 115 | 212 | 28 | 535 |
| PHX | 04 | 25 | 07 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:06CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:42PHXTaylor PyattAssists: David Schlemko, Rostislav Klesla · Backhand, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 3:26CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Andrew Brunette, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 7:48PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 8:36CHIJamal MayersGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Viktor Stalberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 2:27CHIDave BollandSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 9:06CHIBryan BickellAssists: Michael Frolik, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:57PHXTaylor Pyatt: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:05CHIDaniel Carcillo: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:33PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:26PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:24PHXRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:57PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:08CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Langkow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Sharp – Toews8:34
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Kane8:48
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Mayers – Stalberg – Kruger7:40
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Frolik9:44
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy12:06
xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Montador15:29
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson11:22
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Langkow – Doan10:13
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Torres – Bissonnette – Nokelainen6:53
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski10:57
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker9:28
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morris – Yandle11:22
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Klesla – Schlemko12:44
xG 0.44–0.65 (41%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson14:47
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).