Wed, Oct 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 26 | 011 | 03 | 0 | 329 |
| TOR | 16 | 06 | 210 | 01 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49WPGToby EnstromPPAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:39TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:27WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Nik Antropov, Kyle Wellwood · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 7:53WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Brett MacLean · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 7:28TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 7:55TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 3. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 4. WPG Alexander Burmistrov stopped
- 5. TOR Matt Frattin scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:47WPGBryan Little: Broken stick2 min
- P1 8:24TORLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P2 6:48TORMike Komisarek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:20WPGDerek Meech: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:44WPGZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:42WPGDerek Meech: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:54TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- MacLean – Kane – Scheifele6:18
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Burmistrov10:49
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:15
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:55
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Meech10:23
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:15
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian13:33
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:25
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin7:21
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Steckel – Frattin2:29
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin3:57
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Gardiner2:21
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner6:27
xG 0.21–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gardiner9:22
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).