Fri, Oct 21, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 013 | 110 | 234 |
| DET | 212 | 17 | 214 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:21DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 15:18CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Aaron Johnson, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 0:27DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 1:42CBJAaron JohnsonPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 7:46DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:33DETValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:24DETTomas Holmstrom: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:25CBJR.J. Umberger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:01CBJDerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:23DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:19DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:19DETJiri Hudler: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:19CBJRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:43CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P3 5:52CBJAaron Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:54DETJohan Franzen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:04CBJKris Russell: Interference2 min
- P3 19:04DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov5:39
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Prospal – Giroux – Vermette10:26
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Bass – Johansen4:45
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bass – Mayorov – Johansen3:00
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Russell3:05
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Russell4:50
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Russell6:10
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton5:13
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:30
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Franzen9:25
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Helm9:50
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White15:31
xG 0.92–0.48 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Kindl9:24
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall12:30
xG 0.17–1.05 (14%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).