Fri, Oct 21, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 112 | 03 | 04 | 229 |
| STL | 011 | 220 | 09 | 13 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52CARJay HarrisonAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:33CARBrandon SutterAssists: Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 5:18STLJason ArnottAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 16:09STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:58STLMatt D'AgostiniGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:15STLMatt D'Agostini: Holding2 min
- P3 2:17CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:16STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Brent – Stewart – Sutter6:27
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter14:15
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Skinner14:39
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Staal14:40
xG 0.32–1.02 (24%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Harrison14:18
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Allen – Gleason19:02
xG 0.52–0.89 (37%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Pitkanen – McBain19:51
xG 0.67–1.35 (33%)attempts 18–25goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Steen14:18
xG 1.26–0.32 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Oshie – D'Agostini – Berglund10:28
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Backes – Sobotka – Stewart13:15
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Nichol – Porter – Grachev4:00
xG 0.05–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk15:23
xG 1.26–0.49 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Huskins – Pietrangelo18:50
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).