Sat, Oct 22, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 2, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 19 | 12 | 214 |
| CGY | 08 | 011 | 014 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:34NSHNiclas BergforsGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Brian McGrattan · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 14:36NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Craig Smith, Matt Halischuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:19NSHBrian McGrattan: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:30CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:28NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34CGYCory Sarich: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:29NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:07NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17CGYJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Halischuk – Wilson9:34
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bergfors – Geoffrion3:27
xG 0.11–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling10:13
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Hornqvist – Smith9:22
xG 0.04–0.66 (5%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Blum17:06
xG 0.54–0.62 (47%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Laakso – Hillen9:03
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber17:03
xG 0.53–0.76 (41%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Horak8:11
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Morrison – Stempniak – Bourque2:57
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Moss – Stajan – Bourque4:43
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross5:59
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Giordano13:18
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Sarich – Smith11:10
xG 1.12–0.58 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler16:08
xG 0.26–0.86 (23%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).