Sat, Oct 22, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 111 | 05 | 00 | 223 |
| VAN | 04 | 115 | 17 | 16 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Dany Heatley, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 16:28VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:11MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Johnson, Brett Bulmer · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 2:06VANJannik HansenAssists: Manny Malhotra, Andrew Ebbett · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:39VANSami SaloPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:55VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:17VANKeith Ballard: Interference2 min
- P1 12:03VANDale Weise: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:09MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:15MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:03VANAaron Volpatti: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:12MINBrad Staubitz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:45MINDany Heatley: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaubitz – Powe – Gillies3:56
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Bulmer9:45
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Gillies2:18
xG 0.04–0.06 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:30
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Falk17:28
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Schultz – Stoner13:36
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:14
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Hansen6:32
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Ebbett5:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti6:22
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hodgson6:08
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Edler15:19
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Salo – Alberts13:33
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Ballard14:00
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).