Sat, Oct 22, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 26 | 110 | 13 | 527 |
| MTL | 110 | 113 | 25 | 00 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51MTLTravis MoenSHAssists: Lars Eller · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:07TORDavid SteckelPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 0:29MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Lars Eller, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 1:05TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 4:19TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 1:27MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:28MTLTravis MoenAssists: Josh Gorges, Andrei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 13:07TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:23TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:15MTLBrian Gionta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:13MTLAndreas Engqvist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:56TORMike Brown: Charging2 min
- P1 9:56TORLuke Schenn: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:04MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:46MTLYannick Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:51MTLCarey Price: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:14MTLErik Cole: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:39TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:12TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08MTLTravis Moen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Frattin – Kadri9:50
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:00
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Lombardi – Lupul – Kessel7:18
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
- Dupuis – Rosehill – Brown5:04
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner2:37
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson9:30
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Gardiner2:09
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:27
xG 0.87–0.44 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller9:56
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:09
xG 0.22–0.26 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Darche – Palushaj – Engqvist3:10
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban12:27
xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2
- Gill – Diaz11:26
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Emelin – Weber14:08
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).