Sat, Oct 22, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 15 | 15 | 018 | 228 |
| FLA | 114 | 110 | 29 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01NYIMark StreitPPAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:39FLAKris VersteegAssists: Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 13:39FLAMatt BradleyAssists: Shawn Matthias, Mike Weaver · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 14:32NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mark Streit · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:00FLATim KennedyGWGAssists: Shawn Matthias, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:35FLAShawn MatthiasENAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:22FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:39NYIAndrew MacDonald: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:01FLAMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:18NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:15NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:27FLAJack Skille: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:01FLAMarcel Goc: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:13FLAKris Versteeg: Holding2 min
- P3 17:30FLAShawn Matthias: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Comeau – Martin2:10
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:46
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin6:18
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:01
xG 0.06–0.71 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:31
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Mottau – Eaton10:37
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Staios – Streit17:11
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:20
xG 0.57–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bradley – Kennedy – Matthias10:00
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall10:53
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Skille – Kearns – Carter7:41
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison17:26
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:23
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:54
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).