Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 9, Philadelphia Flyers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 311 | 38 | 36 | 925 |
| PHI | 113 | 319 | 416 | 848 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10PHIScott HartnellAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:01WPGRandy JonesAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tanner Glass · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:39WPGJim SlaterAssists: Chris Thorburn, Tanner Glass · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 18:37WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Toby Enstrom, Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 3:39WPGTanner GlassAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 4:39WPGNik AntropovPPAssists: Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 6:25PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
- P2 10:39WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Nik Antropov, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–2
- P2 14:11PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–3
- P2 16:41PHIMax TalbotUnassisted · Deflected, 0.31 xG6–4
- P3 1:09PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–5
- P3 2:23PHIMatt ReadAssists: Andreas Lilja, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–6
- P3 3:02PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–7
- P3 3:30WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Nik Antropov, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–7
- P3 4:31WPGMark StuartAssists: Tim Stapleton, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG8–7
- P3 16:21PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.15 xG8–8
- P3 18:54WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.11 xG9–8
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:37PHIAndreas Lilja: Interference2 min
- P2 4:36PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29WPGJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:13WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P2 10:00PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:08WPGKenndal McArdle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:33WPGEvander Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:18PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:18WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:37PHIErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov6:01
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Wheeler – McArdle – Stapleton8:26
xG 0.14–0.31 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Ladd – Little8:49
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:01
xG 0.37–1.11 (25%)attempts 5–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Jones10:07
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:50
xG 0.50–0.74 (41%)attempts 16–13goals 3–3
- Stuart – Bogosian11:57
xG 0.16–1.32 (11%)attempts 6–22goals 1–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:40
xG 1.06–0.15 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds10:03
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Voracek – Read – Couturier4:25
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Shelley – Talbot – Rinaldo4:08
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros7:28
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn8:41
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Coburn – Gustafsson3:02
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).