Thu, Oct 27, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 312 | 28 | 529 |
| DAL | 111 | 013 | 29 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 3:47LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Slava Voynov, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:27LAKScott ParseAssists: Mike Richards, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 15:21LAKSlava VoynovPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 3:03DALMichael RyderAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 7:20DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 13:08LAKSlava VoynovGWGAssists: Kyle Clifford, Ethan Moreau · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:33LAKDustin BrownENAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:34DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:34LAKScott Parse: Interference2 min
- P1 12:10LAKTrevor Lewis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:02DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P1 17:39DALAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:13DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:51LAKScott Parse: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:01DALSheldon Souray: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:01LAKEthan Moreau: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:06DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:56LAKScott Parse: Interference2 min
- P3 14:28DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:05LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Moreau – Lewis – Clifford4:03
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar8:44
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Stoll – Richardson – Penner7:02
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Parse9:28
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Voynov11:31
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Scuderi – Johnson13:59
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Greene – Martinez8:12
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ryder11:45
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:40
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Burish – Dowell – Wandell5:37
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn6:46
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Grossmann10:46
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas11:01
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Fistric – Goligoski12:01
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).